Committee votes on major defense policy bill expected in May, Military families share workout with first lady Jill Biden, US conducts first evacuation of its citizens from Sudan war, Ukrainian drones strike Crimea oil depot, Russian official says, Army identifies 3 soldiers killed in Alaska helicopter crash, Understanding the role of artificial intelligence, Mark Kitz keynote speech at the C4ISRNET conference, The latest on software, data and artificial intelligence, Army grounds helicopter fleet for force-wide safety stand down. Kyles articles have appeared at The Daily Beast, U.S. ", Ukrainian serviceman patrol near the chemical plant in Avdeevka, Donetsk region, on June 20, 2015. This can massively speed up commanders' decision-making and response times, allowing them to process information far more quickly. What Would Russia Look Like Today if World War II Never Happened? Recent tests of US systems, by contrast, have not gone well. What war with Iran could look like Military Times interviewed more than a dozen military experts, including current and former U.S. military officials, about how a conflict might begin and. "We should be able to achieve our objectives and keep the Indo-Pacific, for example, free and open and prosperous into the future. Fortunately, there is good reason to believe that we will have some warning of war; as was the case along the Ukrainian border, Chinese preparation for conflict would be glaringly visible to everyone concerned. A modern-day nuclear bomb could wipe out an entire city and cause third-degree . Is climate change killing Australian wine? Whether Modi and Xi fit such a description is a question for another day, but the governments that they lead have not managed to find a way to resolve the conflict. Here, the US has the qualitative edge over its potential adversaries and Michele Flournoy believes it can offset areas where the West is outnumbered by the vast size of China's People's Liberation Army. NATO is struggling to figure out how to respond, with member nations holding differing perspectives on when Russian behavior crosses a red line. These five areas pose the greatest risk for the eruption of what we might be tempted to call "World War III.". "It has been interesting to hear what they have learned," Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, told Defense News, a sister publication of Military Times. A 2020 test of a ground-based intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk facility in northwestern Russia. What does future warfare look like? It's here already - BBC News The Potential of a 'Hot War' Between the U.S. and Russia According to a recent open-source study (not published in a peer-reviewed journal), such an all-out attack would kill as many as 104,241,000 Americans. Ukrainian officials in Kiev have made repeated pleas for more. Over the summer China conducted tests of its advanced hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at many times the speed of sound. "If we put our minds together and really invest in the right technologies, the right concepts, and we develop those with speed and scale, we should be able to deter great-power war," she says. The future of the Ukraine conflict is unclear. Sign up for notifications from Insider! He added: "If there is a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, and for protecting our people, we will certainly use all the means available to us - and I'm not bluffing.". Michele Flournoy was a Pentagon policy chief for US strategy under both Presidents Clinton and Obama. Almost any imaginable conflict, however, would end up including the United States and very likely Japan, and would thus constitute a great power war. But what if the current tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine, say, or between the US and China over Taiwan broke out into hostilities? Kiev says it's desperate for more weaponry, but so far Washington has shown willingness to provide only nonlethal equipment. Could our phones suddenly stop working, petrol stations run dry and food distribution get thrown into chaos? There may also be a significant public backlash against a change of government led from Moscow. ", FILE - This Thursday July 2, 2009 file photo, shows a new Russian nuclear submarine, Yuri Dolgoruky, near the Sevmash factory in the northern city of Arkhangelsk, Russia. Franz-Stefan Gady, the specialist in future warfare, believes this will certainly yield benefits in 20 years' time but before then there will be a worrying gap. In effect, the Russians could challenge the air superiority maintained even taken for granted by the U.S. over large swaths the Middle East for more than 20 years. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has, if nothing else, demonstrated that major wars can still happen despite the best efforts of the international community. and Russian leaders understand that a full-scale nuclear war would be a civilization-ending event, Drozdenko explains. "It would be a contested environment. . However, escalation remains a concern. Since then, the simulation has received more than a million views. If your satellites are not communicating and your planners sitting in their underground command bunkers can't be sure what's going on, then it makes it extremely hard to calibrate the next move. "It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict," Glaser said. America Cannot Take On China And Russia Simultaneously Scenario 1: decapitation. Yet right now, on the cusp of 2022, the Russian forces massing on Ukraine's border, while certainly inclusive of offensive cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, are mainly composed of conventional hardware, such as tanks, armoured vehicles and troops - the same sort of hardware that would be deployed if Moscow decided to roll back into the Baltic states, for example. Since March 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine, the U.S. has contributed $244 million in nonlethal security assistance and training. The arrival of these weapons in China's arsenal is now making Washington think twice about going to war to defend Taiwan if China does decide to invade it. What Will Russia Without Putin Look Like? Maybe This. China's Dong Feng 17, first revealed in 2019, carries a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) that can manoeuvre through the atmosphere with an almost unpredictable trajectory, making it hard to intercept. "While we were focused on the broader Middle East," she says, "these countries went to school on the Western way of war. Russias leadership would then warn that any attempt to retaliate would unleash the rest of the countrys nuclear weapons, killing millions more and destroying the U.S. as a military, political, and economic entity. Did they test out problems with NATO structure? The costs to Russia would be too high, the benefits too limited. China today spends more on defense annually than Russia, but still imports platforms and advanced weaponry from Russia. April 27, 2023 4:01 am CET. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings. In total, across Europe, Asia, and the US the simulation says a total of 90 million people would be killed within the first few hours of conflict and that number does not include deaths from nuclear fallout or other long-term effects. Diplomacy could ensure that both sides, though they want very different things, can work together to avoid the one thing everyone doesnt wantnuclear war. While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. What Would Happen if a Nuclear War with Russia Broke Out "The simulation was also supported by data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict. But before you freak out and assume this is the world's fate, the chance of a nuclear global war is fairly unlikely. One factor that is likely to play a major role in future warfare is artificial intelligence - AI. Russia has a population of 144 million people with a larger percentage of its population in rural areas away from the direct effects of nuclear attack. Photo Credit: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP. U.S. vs. Russia: What a war would look like between the world's most Explore in 3D: The dazzling crown that makes a king. We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we back. "A crisis like the one we are currently facing often results in miscommunication between parties, exacerbated by the fact that there remain very few active lines of communication between Russia and the U.S./NATO," said Glaser, who is an associate professor at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. Read about our approach to external linking. The six hypersonic weapons are not particularly accurate, but loaded with devastating two-megaton warheads (two million tons of TNT), so theres no need for pinpoint precision. "In addition to the immediate death and suffering and economic and societal collapse, in the years following the war, the phenomenon of nuclear winter would exacerbate the catastrophe," he said, pointing to one study which found that more than five billion people could eventually die from a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. What Would a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Look Like? ", Yet some see Putin's maneuvers in Syria as some broader geopolitical gambit that aims to secure a deal on Ukraine. The second possibility is the eastern war approach. In this scenario, both sides have lost. Five U.S. Army brigadesbacked up by fighters, bombers, and cruise missilesdrive from Poland to Kyiv, then on to Donetsk. The exercise will feature the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the guided missile cruiser Moskva, as well as several smaller escort vessels and large amphibious assault and landing ships, Russia's TASS news agency reported. "We are really at a strategic inflection point where we - the US, the UK and our allies - are coming out of 20 years of focusing on counter terrorism and counter insurgency, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lifting our gaze to realise we are now in a very serious great-power competition," she says. The war in Ukraine has caused concerns about nuclear war. Not according to Michele Flournoy, who spent years right at the heart of US defence policy. If China attacks Russia, it can be assured it will suffer a devastating counter strike. We can hope that the leaders of the world's great powers will take care over the coming year with the vast stockpiles of weapons that they control. The commander of U.S. Strategic Command, Admiral Charles Richard, testified to Congress in April 2021 that the United States might well face a two-front or even a three-front war if Russia were to . One country decides it has exhausted all other options and must destroy enemy nuclear forces before it can use them. Taking this territory against the current opposition in Ukraine would require a force of around 24,000-36,000 personnel over six to 14 days. It's logistically complex. That's hypersonic missiles - super-charged projectiles that can fly at anywhere between five and 27 times the speed of sound and carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead. This is well below the threshold of warfare and much of it deniable. Russia depends on Iranian airspace for its flight corridors into Syria, and reportedly is prepared to support Iranian ground troops aligned with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Kyle Mizokami is a writer on defense and security issues and has been at Popular Mechanics since 2015. NATO said earlier this week it had stepped back from a floated idea to reinforce the alliance's military presence in countries bordering Russia, preferring for now to suspend cooperation with Moscow and give more time to talks. The Soviet-era weapons design bureaus remain prominent internationally. There will be no return to normalcy or status quo ante. Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. "This is really quite difficult for them. "It became clear that Russia is going to exercise a more ambitious policy in the Middle East. Instead she's set to lead the U.S., NATO, and Europe down a path of ruin, warns Scott Ritter. There'd be attempts to "blind" the other by knocking out communications, including satellites, or even cutting the vital undersea cables that carry data. Indeed, there were already reports of some in the run up to the warlike when hackers reportedly targeted. Fires generating soot could block sunlight, possibly for decades, causing global cooling and shortening growing seasons, causing worldwide food insecurity.. Worry about the immediacy of war between Taiwan and China has waned a bit in the past months, in large part because of China's catastrophic covid experience. Still more, living downwind from blast zones, would be at risk of illness or death from radioactive fallout. In our scenario, well look at a surprise nuclear first strike that leads to all-out war. Mad men, unbound by reality and a survival instinct, might also choose nuclear war. Smoke rises over Talbiseh, a city in western Syria's Homs province, on Sept. 30, marking Russian first airstrikes in the region. Tamara Patton, Moritz Ktt, Alex Glaser, Alex Wellerstein, Bruce Blair, Sharon Weiner, Zia Mian, Jeff Snyder, SCOTUS Now Just Another Congressional Committee, Secret Chinese Police Stations in Europe Are 'Tip of the Iceberg', Trump's Attorney Just Blew Carroll Rape Case, King Charles Says Royals Require 'Acting Ability', Ukraine Will Regain 'Significant Territory' From Russia, Florida GOP Paves the Way to Help Ron DeSantis Challenge Trump. The Biden administration and its allies in Europe have taken extraordinary care with the risks of escalation, but Washington does not hold all of the cards and either Kyiv or Moscow might become willing to accept the risk of a wider conflict, a conflict that could develop into World War III. Russia has slightly more warheads overall about 8,500 but a slightly fewer 1,800 of them operational. Ukrainian soldiers train outside Kyiv on Feb. 21. That threat could become a powerful one if Russia's true goal in the Baltics is to force NATO into showing that it won't honor Article V, the key element of the alliance treaty that holds an attack on one member nation will be met with a swift and unified response from all member nations. Explainer: What would a nuclear war look like? - SWI swissinfo.ch That's reflected in the fact that Russia maintains a lone aircraft carrier while the U.S. Navy's 10-carrier fleet operates on a continuing global deployment cycle. Russia remains weak, according to many traditional criteria. An attack on just one city in the U.S. could cause fatalities in the hundreds of thousands and just as many injuries, Tara Drozdenko, director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, tells Popular Mechanics. However if every nuclear weapon was detonated at the same time, this is what it'd look like. But it has not yet provided any offensive weaponry and ammunition, and it has not threatened military action against Russia. Video: As War Between Russia and Ukraine Continues in Europe, North Korea Appears To Be Rebuilding Its Nuclear Test Site (Veuer) The nuclear surprise attack, known as a "first strike," would . According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. aggressively undermining America's 25-year claim to being the only truly global superpower. Since its annexation of Crimea in early 2014, Russia has steadily expanded its military presence in the region. Photo Credit: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images. What Victory Will Look Like in Ukraine - The Atlantic Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war Russia has a very diverse atomic arsenal, which allows it to launch attacks using land, sea and air delivery platforms: this is the so-called. The XII International Aviation and Space Show in Zhukovsky opened Tuesday for specialists and press, with members of the public invited to visit it from Friday, Aug. 28. Yet the Obama administration has been reluctant to provide more robust support, determined, it seems, to avoid the potential for a proxy war with the Russians. That has sparked concern in the West that Putin's ultimate goal is to break NATO with force, if intimidation fails. (Homs Media Centre via AP). These five simmering disputes pose the greatest risk of erupting into "World War III" in 2023. It's about "working out at what point a military response is the correct response," said Nick de Larrinaga, a London-based analyst for IHS Jane's Defense and Security Group. Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota would receive at least 800 nuclear strikes between them. VideoThe secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure, LGBT troops take love for Eurovision to front line, Why an Indian comedian is challenging fake news rules, What Europe's royals could teach King Charles. "We have not fought wars the way they do in kind of an urban, mixed urban and nonurban setting with UAVs, with electronic jamming.". Russia currently occupies parts of Ukraine, but the U.S. still considers Moscow's March 2014 invasion illegal and its control there illegitimate. The Army deployments are part of a broader U.S. military effort to reassure NATO allies rattled by Russia's actions. Well, almost the first things that would happen in any hostilities would be massive cyber attacks by both sides. With modern technology and nuclear weapons, some wonder what a new World War would look like. And it's a huge gamble for Moscow, experts say. In the four-minute-long video, scientists play out a scenario where Russia is attempting to fight off members of NATO. "I would not want to speculate how long it would take for humanity to recover," Glaser said. The Baltic Fleet's assets today include only two small Kilo-class diesel powered submarines, one of which is used mostly for training, along with a handful of Sovremenny-class destroyers, a frigate, four corvettes, and a smattering of support ships. As a part of that, it is investing heavily to expand its submarine fleet. A nuclear war is extremely unlikely. How will Russia's war with Ukraine end? Here are 5 possible outcomes - CNBC And those next five to 10 years could well see some of the most dangerous challenges to Western security. Dmytro Smoliyenko / Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images, Kostas Pikoulas/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images, Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, NOW WATCH: The true cost of America's war machines. These very sophisticated air defense capabilities are not about ISIL they're about something else.". In the current situation, lacking a direct U.S. and Russian confrontation, the likelihood of nuclear war is somewhere near zero. Instead of carriers designed for offensive power projection at sea, the Russians are investing in an expanding fleet of submarines that can supplement their nuclear force and, conventionally, threaten an enemy surface fleet in nearby waters such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea or the Mediterranean Sea. A 'concentrated' attack is needed to disrupt the stalemated war, Ben Barry said. These tensions aren't new, but historically they have been constrained by the Cold War and by the post-Cold War liberal international order. At first, the war is between Western European countries and Russia but once all major cities have been bombed, the war turns between the US and Russia. Who would win a war between NATO and Russia? 'Pouring oil on fire' Sgt. In effect, Russia has two armies: About two thirds of the roughly 800,000-man force remains filled with unmotivated and poorly trained draftees, but about one third is not and those are the units outfitted with top-notch gear, including the Armata T-14 Main Battle Tanks. The current situation in Ukraine carries some risk of nuclear escalation from misunderstanding or miscalculation. What would a war with Russia look like today. In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine, starting the largest clash in Europe since World War II. The nuclear exchange quickly escalates in Europe with Russia sending 300 warheads via aircraft and short-range missiles to hit NATO bases and advancing troops. Ukrainian servicemen patrol near the chemical plant in Avdeevka, a town just north of the city of Donetsk, on June 20. The Ukraine War Has Already Begun - and It's Unlike Any You've Seen Before The hybrid warfare developed and practiced by Russia over the past two decades relies - like in the Ukraine crisis - on propaganda, psychological warfare and cyberattacks as much as on conventional firepower The first is gone and the second is fraying, to the extent that Pyongyang may feel like it has a moment and Seoul may struggle to find the patience to tolerate the antics of its neighbor. Russia's aerospace industry, for example, has benefited greatly from international exports to non-Western nations, which go to Russia to buy effective fighter jets that are cheaper than their Western variants. The dynamic between the two states seems driven by impatience; an impatience in the North that the world still refuses to take it seriously despite its magnificent nuclear weapons, and an impatience in the South that a nation of great significance remains burdened by its inept and retrograde sibling. as well as other partner offers and accept our. A screenshot taken from the Plan A nuclear war simulation. The Russians don't have much in the way of long-range power projection capability," said Mark Galeotti, a Russian security expert at New York University.Moscow's military campaign in Syria is relying on supply lines that require air corridors through both Iranian and Iraqi air space. Yet the tension between the U.S. and Russia over the war is a reminder that as long as both sides have nuclear weapons, the possibility of a nuclear war happening is not zero. Ukraine's anticipated counter-offensive will be like a "big bang," a military expert told The Sun. Because of the dire consequences of a nuclear conflict, it is incumbent on nuclear states to seek diplomatic solutions, Drozdenko says. Here's what it might look like. It might seem like the war in Ukraine is slipping from the radar of the world's media, implying it has reached stalemate and ground to . In late September, all sides agreed to withdraw tanks and heavy artillery from Ukraine's eastern front. The lesson is that as long as nuclear weapons exist, there is a possibility they could be used. Lost in all of the discussion of the revitalization of NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a simmering crisis on the alliance's southern flank. National security advisor Jake Sullivan gave a grim description Sunday of what a Russian invasion of Ukraine might look like and urged Americans to depart the country immediately . Before we begin, we should note that neither of the scenarios are likely to occur in our lifetimes. Ukraine war: Is there a stalemate - or is this the lull before the Before covering the military, he worked as a reporter for the Houston Chronicle in Texas, the Albany Times Union in New York and The Associated Press in Milwaukee. This Is What a Nuclear War Between the U.S. and Russia Could Look Like, U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. Putin's spokesman pointed on Tuesday to the Biden administration . Paula Bronstein for Foreign Policy. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has set off a new wave of concern about cyber attacks. In sum, the Russian military is not the equal of the U.S. military. "We cannot stand by when the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a nation is flagrantly violated," Obama told the U.N. General Assembly in a major speech on Sept. 28. That is why just last month, leaders of five nuclear weapons states, including the United States and Russia, called the avoidance of war between nuclear powers their foremost responsibilities, and affirmed that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.. What would happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? Russia has one of the biggest nuclear arsenals in the world, and is estimated to have thousands of nuclear warheads in its stockpile, assigned for both long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. So is it all doom and gloom? The greatest concern for Russia in this scenario would be how the Ukrainian military and police would respond. Russia on June 20 slammed the EU's extension of sanctions over its annexation of Crimea as "blackmail" and vowed it would not be pressured into returning the peninsula to Ukraine. ", Sign up for our new free Indy100 weekly newsletter. Russia still insists it has no plans to invade Ukraine. The year 2021 has seen a fundamental shift in British defence and security policy. The celebrated realist Hans J. Morgenthau wrote, in his rules for effective diplomacy, that you should. Disputes between Athens and Ankara over energy exploration in the Aegean have driven the current tension, although the territorial disagreement underlying the argument have existed for decades. "The embarrassment is just going to keep growing over this," Laura Harth, the campaign director at Safeguard Defenders, told Newsweek. SERGEY BOBOK/AFP via Getty Images. Russia has deployed a number of Su-30 fighters to Syria, aircraft that are capable of striking ground targets as well as those in the air. Any fight between Turkey and Greece would immediately involve NATO, and would almost certainly result in some degree of opportunistic intervention by Russia. Russia's Victory Day parade is an annual extravagance in Red Square. Russian military and security forces would seek to remove the current government and state powers in order to insert replace them . Ukrainian troops man an anti-aircraft weapon at a checkpoint outside the town of Amvrosiivka, close to the Russian border. Concern that Russia might use nuclear weapons to restore its flagging fortunes in Ukraine seems to have declined since summer, as the war has settled into a destructive stalemate. "The actual fatalities would be significantly increased by deaths occurring from the collapse of medical systems, as well as nuclear fallout and other long-term effects, including a possible global-scale nuclear winter.". On 16 November, Russia carried out a missile test in. Bombers are particularly useful in this situation, as they could be used to actively hunt down what remained of Russias ICBMs, particularly those like the SS-27 mounted on 16-wheeled missile transport trucks. Wed 26 Apr 2023 09.14 EDT Last modified on Wed 26 Apr 2023 16.13 EDT. The scenario outlined above is an outlier, but one still within the realm of possibility. But what does the future of great-power warfare look like and is the West a match for the challenges ahead? They're using sophisticated electronic warfare systems to jam the Ukrainians' communications, radar, GPS and early warning-detection equipment, said Ihor Dolhov, Ukraine's deputy defense minister for European integration. She believes the West's focus on the Middle East for the past two decades has allowed its adversaries to do a lot of catching up in military terms. The strike, known as a counterforce strike, would be concentrated away from major population and industrial centers. Russia running the U.N. Security Council is going about how you'd
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